Climate scientists have warned that a powerful phase of El Niño could develop later this year, raising concerns about extreme heat and unusual monsoon behaviour in India, along with wider disruptions to global weather systems.
Recent climate projections indicate that the evolving phenomenon may significantly influence atmospheric circulation patterns worldwide. If the warming in the Pacific Ocean strengthens further, it could increase the chances of intense heatwaves across northern and central India and raise the risk of below-normal rainfall during the monsoon season.
Potential Impact on India’s Monsoon
India’s summer monsoon largely depends on the temperature difference between the landmass and surrounding oceans. During El Niño years, atmospheric circulation patterns change, often weakening the moisture-carrying winds that usually flow from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal toward the Indian subcontinent.
Historically, many El Niño years have been linked with higher temperatures and reduced monsoon rainfall in several parts of India. Experts say a strong event could therefore disrupt seasonal rainfall patterns and intensify heat conditions in many regions.
Early Forecast Signals Emerging
Recent projections from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggest that key oceanic and atmospheric indicators linked to El Niño may begin aligning by June. Researchers consider this alignment an important signal that the climate phenomenon may be developing.
Several global climate models indicate that the world could experience a strong — or even a “super” — El Niño if the warming trend in the Pacific Ocean continues and becomes fully coupled with atmospheric circulation patterns.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate cycle caused by unusual warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
Under normal conditions, strong trade winds push warm surface waters towards Southeast Asia and Australia, while colder water rises along the coast of South America. During El Niño, these winds weaken, allowing warm waters to move eastward across the Pacific and altering global atmospheric circulation.
Scientists say current forecasts show what they describe as an “extremely classic” El Niño atmospheric response, with strong rising air over the Pacific and descending air over the Indian Ocean region.
Global Weather Consequences
Major El Niño events in the past — such as those in 1997–98 and 2015–16 — triggered extreme weather conditions worldwide and contributed to temporary spikes in global temperatures.
Researchers say that if the ocean and atmosphere become fully coupled by mid-year, the developing climate pattern could reshape weather systems globally. For instance, stronger vertical wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean may suppress hurricane activity, while the western Pacific region could experience an increase in typhoon activity.
Although the precise strength of the potential event remains uncertain, scientists say current indicators increasingly suggest that a significant El Niño phase could form in the coming months, with far-reaching consequences for weather patterns around the world.
