The southwest monsoon is likely to begin its seasonal withdrawal from India around September 19, with weather conditions gradually becoming favourable for the retreat of the monsoon from parts of western Rajasthan, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The withdrawal is expected to begin from northwest India before progressively advancing towards other parts of the country. However, despite the onset of the withdrawal process, Odisha is likely to continue experiencing intermittent rainfall activity in the coming weeks.
The IMD has indicated that the southwest monsoon could completely withdraw from Odisha by the second week of October, subject to the prevailing atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
Rainfall May Continue In Odisha Through September
The beginning of monsoon withdrawal does not necessarily mean an immediate end to rainfall in Odisha. Weather activity could continue across parts of the state until the end of September, particularly due to the possible development of two cyclonic circulations over the Bay of Bengal.
These weather systems could influence rainfall patterns along the Odisha coast and in several interior districts. The exact intensity and distribution of rainfall will depend on the movement and development of these systems.
As a result, residents are likely to see a transition from the active monsoon phase towards more variable weather conditions during the latter part of September.
Yellow Warning Issued For 13 Odisha Districts
Meanwhile, the Regional Meteorological Centre in Bhubaneswar has issued a yellow warning for 13 districts for today.
The districts under the weather alert are:
- Mayurbhanj
- Keonjhar
- Balasore
- Bhadrak
- Jajpur
- Kendrapara
- Cuttack
- Jagatsinghpur
- Khurda
- Puri
- Nayagarh
- Ganjam
- Gajapati
Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds of around 30 to 40 kmph are likely in these areas.
People, particularly those working outdoors or travelling during thunderstorms, have been advised to remain cautious and seek safe shelter when lightning activity develops.
Dry Weather Forecast For The Next Two Days
Despite the weather warning for today, Odisha is expected to experience largely dry conditions over the following two days.
According to the forecast, no specific rainfall warning has been issued for the state during this period. However, weather conditions could change thereafter, with rainfall activity expected to increase in some areas.
The alternating pattern of dry spells and isolated rainfall is likely to continue as the state gradually moves towards the latter phase of the southwest monsoon.
District-Wise Weather Alerts From September 18 To 20
The weather department has also issued district-specific warnings for the coming days.
On September 18, yellow warnings have been issued for Keonjhar and Mayurbhanj, where heavy rainfall is possible.
On September 19, five districts are expected to remain under yellow warning, while three districts have been placed under yellow warning for September 20.
The Regional Meteorological Centre, Bhubaneswar, has forecast the possibility of heavy rainfall in the warned districts during the respective periods.
Monsoon Withdrawal To Bring Seasonal Transition
The southwest monsoon normally begins retreating from northwest India during September before gradually withdrawing from other parts of the country. The process is influenced by changes in atmospheric circulation, rainfall patterns, wind conditions and moisture availability.
For Odisha, the complete withdrawal is currently expected by the second week of October. Until then, the state could continue to witness occasional spells of rain and thunderstorms, particularly when favourable weather systems develop over the Bay of Bengal.
The possible formation of cyclonic circulations later in September will therefore remain an important factor in determining Odisha’s rainfall pattern during the final phase of the monsoon season.
